[ Pobierz całość w formacie PDF ]

overjoyed if she was provoked into losing control.
"Janet Walsh, Planet News. Ms. Mosala, perhaps you could clarify something for
me. This Theory of
Everything you keep talking about, which is going to sum up the final truth
about the universe ...
it sounds absolutely wonderful to me, but I would like to hear exactly what
it's based on."
Mosala must have known who Walsh was, but she betrayed no sign of hostility.
She said, "Every TOE
is an attempt to find a deeper explanation for what's called the Standard
Unified Field Theory.
That was completed in the late twenties-and it's survived all experimental
tests, so far. Strictly speaking, the SUFT is already a 'Theory of
Everything': it does give a unified account of all the forces of nature. But
its a very messy, arbitrary theory-based on a ten-dimensional universe with a
lot of strange quirks which are difficult to take at face value. Most of us
believe that there's a simpler explanation underlying it, just waiting to be
found."
Walsh said, "But this SUFT you're trying to supplant-what was that based on?"
"A number of earlier theories which each, separately, accounted for one or two
of the four basic forces. But if you want to know where those earlier theories
came from, I'd have to recount five thousand years of scientific history. The
short answer is, ultimately, a TOE will be based on observations of every
aspect of the world, and the search for patterns in those observations."
"That's it?" Walsh mimed happy disbelief. "Then we're all scientists, aren't
we? We all use our senses, we all make observations. And we all see patterns.
I see patterns in the clouds above my home, every time I walk out into the
garden." She smiled a modest, self-deprecating smile.
Mosala said, "That's a start. But there are two powerful steps beyond that
kind of observation, which have made all the difference. Carrying out
deliberate, controlled experiments, instead of only watching nature as it
unfolds. And carrying out quantitative observations: making measurements, and
trying to find patterns in the numbers."
102
"Eike numerology?"
Mosala shook her head, and said patiently, "Not any pattern, for the sake of
it. You have to have a clear hypothesis to start with, and you have to know
how to test it."
"You mean . . . use all the right statistical methods, and so on?"
"Exactly."
"But given the right statistical methods . . . you think the whole truth about
the universe is spelled out in the patterns you can find by peering at an
endless list of numbers?"
Page 62
ABC Amber Palm Converter, http://www.processtext.com/abcpalm.html
Mosala hesitated, probably wondering if the tortuous process of explaining
anything more subtle would be worse than accepting that characterization other
life's work.
"More or less."
"Everything's in the numbers? The numbers never lie?"
Mosala lost all patience. "No, they don't."
Walsh said, "That's very interesting. Because a few months ago, I came across
a preposterous-very offensive!-idea that was being spread on some of the
far-right-wing European networks. I thought it deserved to be
properly-scientifically!-refuted. So I bought a little statistical package,
and file:///F|/rah/Greg%20Egan/Egan,%20Greg%20-%20Distress.txt (46 of 157)
[1/23/03 12:28:37 PM]
file:///F|/rah/Greg%20Egan/Egan,%20Greg%20-%20Distress.txt
I asked it to test the hypothesis that a certain portion-a certain quota-of
the Nobel Prizes since the year 2010 have been explicitly reserved on
political grounds for the citizens of African nations." There was a moment of
stunned silence, then a wave of outraged exclamations spread across the room.
Walsh held up her notepad and continued, raising her voice over the outcry,
"And the answer was, there was a ninety-five percent chance-" Half a dozen
people in the fan club rows sprang to their feet and started shouting at her;
the two men on either side of me began hissing.
Walsh pressed on, with an expression of bemusement, as if she couldn't
understand what all the fuss was about. "The answer was, there was a
ninety-five percent chance that it was true."
A dozen more people stood up to abuse her. Four journalists stormed out of the
auditorium. Walsh remained on her feet, waiting for a response, smiling
innocently. I saw Marian Fox move tentatively toward the podium; Mosala
gestured to her to stay back.
Mosala began typing on her notepad. The shouting and hissing gradually
subsided, and then everyone but Walsh took their seats again.
The silence can't have lasted more than ten seconds, but it was long enough
for me to realize that my heart was pounding. I wanted to punch
103
someone. Walsh was no racist, but she was an expert manipulator. She'd slipped
a barb under everyone's skin; if she'd had two hundred screaming,
placard-waving followers at the back of the auditorium, she couldn't have
raised stronger passions.
Mosala looked up and smiled sweetly.
She said, "The African scientific renaissance has been examined in detail, in
over thirty papers in the last ten years. I'd be happy to give you the
references, if you can't track them down yourself. You'll find there are
several more sophisticated hypotheses for explaining the sharp rise in the
number of articles published in peer-reviewed scientific journals, the rates
of citation of those articles, the number of patents awarded-and the number of
Nobel Prizes for physics and chemistry.
"When it comes to your own field, though, I'm afraid you're on your own. I
can't find a single study which offers any alternative explanation to the
ninety-nine percent likelihood that, since its inception, a quota of Booker
Prizes have been set aside for a clearly delineated, intellectually challenged
minority: hacks who should have stayed in advertizing."
The auditorium exploded with laughter. Walsh remained standing for a few
seconds, then took her seat with remarkable dignity: unrepentant, unashamed,
unfazed. I wondered if all she'd wanted was for Mosala to hit back on the same
level. There was no question that Planet Noise would find a way to twist the
exchange into a victory for Walsh: SCIENCE PRODIGY, CONFRONTED WITH THE FACTS,
INSULTS RESPECTED AUTHOR. But most of the media would report that Mosala had
responded with great restraint to deliberate provocation.
There were a few more questions-all of them innocuous and mildly
Page 63
ABC Amber Palm Converter, http://www.processtext.com/abcpalm.html
technical-then the session was declared at an end. I walked around to the back
of the stage, where Karin De Groot was waiting for me.
De Groot was unmistakably item-a look which was not at all "halfway toward" [ Pobierz całość w formacie PDF ]